UPDATE 1-S&P downgrades Egypt on economic stability risks
NEW YORK Oct 18 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor’s on Tuesday
cut Egypt’s credit ratings deeper into junk territory, saying
the transition to a new government has increased risks to
macroeconomic stability.It warned another downgrade is possible if the political
transition is less smooth than expected, making it more
difficult to finance the government’s borrowing requirements or
the country’s external needs.S&P cut Egypt’s foreign-currency rating to BB-minus from
BB. The local-currency rating was cut by two notches, to
BB-minus from BB-plus. All the ratings have a negative
outlook.Clashes between protesters and the army left 25 people dead
earlier this month in Cairo, in the worst outbreak of violence
since the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak in February.S&P sees a risk that street protests may continue until
parliamentary elections take place in the next few months, a
constitution is agreed by August 2012, and a president is
elected, probably in early 2013.In the meantime the government will likely run high general
deficits to appease the population, mainly through food and
fuel subsidies. Government revenues are also expected to be
low.”Risks to macroeconomic stability have risen during the
transition period for Egyptian political reform, which we
expect to evolve over the next two years,” S&P’s analyst Trevor
Cullinan wrote in a report.”These risks center on the government’s fiscal stance but
also encompass price stability and balance of payments
pressure,” he said.The ratings agency noted that Egypt’s net international
reserves have fallen by $12 billion to $24 billion since the
uprising to September — a result of current account deficits
and capital outflows.”The pace of reserve loss has slowed of late, although the
recent violence could create new pressures,” S&P warned.